imho: Y2K

by Lee Damon
<[email protected]>

Lee (a.k.a. nomad) has run castle.org since 1982. He is a senior systems administrator for a San Diego-based R&D company, and is never afraid to share his opinions about computing (and he doubts that his employer would wish to claim them).



Dear Mom,

I read the clippings you sent me with dismay. It looks like the press is doing what the press does best — selling fear. Airplanes won't fall out of the sky. Missiles won't fire on their own. Banks won't lose everyone's money. We won't get stuck in 1900, the paint on your house won't turn gray, and your dog won't lose her strong bones and shiny coat. Despite what the press is selling, the wahTOOkie bug is nothing more than the modern bogeyman: as soon as you look at it, it runs away whimpering. (I've started calling it wahTOOkie to show how silly it all really is.)

Yes, I know CNN is telling everyone that the banking system will collapse. That's total rubbish! The only reason the banks might have a problem is if people panic and pull their money out. If enough people listen to CNN and their ilk, we could have a problem, yes. Everyone pulling their savings out of the banking system could lead to some serious financial problems. However, that won't be because of Y2K: it'll be because of the press fomenting panic. Remember how Hearst got the U.S. into the Spanish-American War just so he could sell more papers? Yellow journalism is alive and well.

I've been looking at this problem for the past several years. People who are relying on ancient systems might have some issues — but most of us have already dealt with (or are starting to deal with) those problems. I fully expect most of the critical systems to continue to function past 01/01/2000. I know the systems I'm responsible for will. I've installed the vendor patches and tested the responses of the computers for all the critical dates (01/01/2000, 02/29/2000, 03/01/2000, 01/01/2001, 02/28/2001) plus, for our people who deal with financials, I've tested quarter-end and year-end dates. The UNIX hosts I've tested have all shown that they will have no problems.

(Yes, there will be a 2/29/2000. I thought we had twisted algorithms, but "every 4 years, except on 00 years, except every 400 years" is just too much fun.)

Of course, some people are still running old OSes or haven't installed the patches their vendors say need to be installed. Those people are, IMHO, foolish. If they're responsible for mission-critical systems, they're not only foolish, but unprofessional in the extreme.

Patching may be a bit of work if you have a lot of systems to deal with, but that's the beauty of UNIX — it can be remotely administered. We have a system that lets us patch all 3,000 of our systems fairly quickly. The mainframe boys have (supposedly) been patching their systems as the vendors put the stuff out. If I were to be worried about anything, it's all those little desktops that are so hard to reach remotely. They're going to be a big pain. However, very few of them are mission-critical, so it's not as bad as it sounds.

On the plus side, one of the beauties of Y2K is that management is scared of it. Have some old hardware you really need to get rid of? Chances are very good that you'll be saying, "It's not Y2K-compliant, we have to replace it."

I know you're running Windows on your home system. Have you installed the latest patches from Microsoft? I'm glad you finally got rid of that DOS/Win3.1 system. I don't think any amount of patching will fix that old stuff. What did you do with your old 486 system? I hear they make great doorstops. Don't forget to make sure your financial software is up to date. Check your vendor's Web site. (Mine is offering an upgrade for the cost of the CD. Not the latest release, mind you, but one that gets the job done and is compliant. Works for me.)

I guess, if you're really desperate to use that old thing, you could set the clock back to 1972. That year has the same date/day layout as 2000 will. Sure, it's not elegant; consider it a coping strategy. Problem is, some PCs won't let you roll the clock back that far. Of course, those systems are so obsolete they really need to be replaced anyway. I just saw some AMD K6 systems for less than $200. I might upgrade my home system even though I don't need to.

As for stockpiling food and stuff, you should already be doing that. You live in hurricane country! I stockpile stuff for The Big One (it's the price I pay for living in California), and you should be storing enough stuff to get through your local natural disaster. (I'd think a two-week supply would be adequate, if not overkill.) You know, people in the northeast U.S. have to live through two-week power outages when the ice snaps their power lines. I bet they're ready for anything that might come.

Ah, sure, some power generators might go offline briefly. You've dealt with brownouts before, haven't you? Just make sure you have plenty of ice in the freezer and don't open it if you don't need to. If a blackout happens, move some of the block ice into the fridge. Your food will last a couple of days unless you have one of those Florida January hot spells. Besides, I hear ice boxes are retro-chic this year.

How am I preparing for wahTOOkie? I'm keeping my natural-disaster kit up to date, a few weeks' worth of spending money handy (I have traveller's checks and a little cash in my ND kit), and ice in the freezer.

Most important, don't panic. You'll be fine.

Your loving son,

Lee

P.S. Dad was kidding about that bomb shelter, wasn't he?